International Credit

One of the most difficult aspects of doing business internationally is the lack of reliable credit risk information for many countries. In this section, CP will provide insight into the financial, economic and political risks of various countries around the world.

Recent Articles

Although a key market, China's economy differs from the economies of most developed countries in five key respects, according to the country's own publicly-traded companies. "Everybody wants a piece of China."

Ancient Chinese philosopher Laozi, the founder of Taoism, said in the sixth century B.C., "Rule a big country as you would fry a small fish [with little stirring]...the more prohibitions there are, the poorer the people become."  In this article, CreditPulse reports on the five key economic risks related to doing business in China.

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Global domestic credit as a percent of GDP declined slightly in 2011, according to data from the World Bank.  Some countries have room for expansion while others are nearing the end of the line.

In recent years, the industrialized world's appetite for credit has created mountains of debt primarily in the form of bank loans and bond purchases.  Many of these countries are over-banked -- relying too much on banking and credit to achieve economic growth.

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Many of Spain's banks are in real trouble although the country's two largest -- Banco Santander and BBVA -- appear to be holding steady.  "Bad debts held by Spanish banks are at a 17-year high."

The Spanish government's decision to nationalize Bankia SA, the country's fourth largest bank, last week with a $24 billion bailout, the largest in Spain's history, effectively served notice that Spain's banking problems are worse than previously thought.

 

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Increased signs of political unrest in South Africa, the contintent's most developed nation, prompted Moody's to lower its credit outlook on the country from stable to negative.  "Political uncertainty is overplayed."

"For the first time ever in the 16 years of freedom and democracy, we see black and white South Africans celebrating together in the stadiums and fan parks," said South African President Jacob Zuma during last year's World Cup hosted by South Africa.  Get the details of why Moody's lowered South Africa's credit outlook in addition to other risk information.

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Equity capital is fleeing the debt-ridden economies of Europe, particularly EU market countries, in droves as evidenced by huge declines in their stock markets for the third quarter of this year.  One bright spot: Slovakia.

To no ones surprise, Greece's stock market, the Athens Stock Exchange, was battered in the third quarter of 2011 declining 45.3 percent from July to September, according to a quarterly performance ranking of the world's 65 major stock markets released earlier this month by the Wall Street Journal.

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Credit ratings firms fail to see sovereign defaults coming soon enough and have typically been too late in issuing key downgrades of government or sovereign debt.  "Once a crisis is obvious, it's obvious to everybody."

The three major credit ratings firms -- Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch Ratings -- have a poor track record in predicting sovereign defaults soon enough to save creditors and investors, according to analysis of 35 years of data conducted by the Wall Street Journal.  Read below to learn more about sovereign defaults and the countries that have defaulted since 2001.

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In its downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+, S&P offers keen insight into the world of sovereign credit risk.  "Uncertainty about the resolve of the U.S. government to take action on fiscal issues."

As credit decisions go, this has to rank as one of the biggest.  On August 5th, Standard & Poors, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies and long considered a key arbiter of sovereign risk, held firm to its view that the U.S. government "fell short" in its recent efforts to reduce its growing debt

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Currency devaluations and brazen government seizures of foreign assets have turned Venezuela, the second largest economy in South America, into one of the riskiest and costliest places in the world to do business.

In 2009, Tidewater, Inc., a $1.1 billion maritime oil drilling support and services company based in New Orleans, Lousiana, had 15 vessels operating on Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela to support that nation's oil industry.  Read more to find out which companies have been expropriated and which ones are still there in this CreditPulse exclusive.

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With the nation of Greece in financial turmoil, CreditPulse takes a look at some Greek companies that aren't faring much better than the country itself when it comes to debt and credit risk.

In early 2008, both Greece and one of its largest companies, Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA - a company majority owned by the Greek state - needed cash and they needed it fast.  Fortunately for both, the largest telecom in Europe, Deutche Telekom AG, the $74.3 billion German telecom giant, was interested in expanding into the Greek market.

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A closer look at the Mediterranean nation of Greece - a country that garnered little attention before its financial crisis - reveals how a combination of spending, debt and lack of growth have brought the world's oldest democracy to the brink of insolvency.

On February 11th, while attending a summit of European leaders in Brussels, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou told a group of reporters, "we will not be needing any help," referring to a possible bailout from other European countries.  Read below as Credit Pulse reports on Greece

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